Elon Musk says China is set to take the lead in global AI computing power, arguing that its growing energy capacity gives it a major edge in scaling artificial intelligence systems. Speaking on the Moonshots with Peter Diamandis podcast, Musk said China is likely to surpass every other country in both electricity output and, eventually, chip production.
According to Musk, the real bottleneck for AI isn’t algorithms or even semiconductors — it’s power. He estimates that by 2026, China could generate nearly three times as much electricity as the US, giving it the ability to support massive, energy-hungry data centers. “People are underestimating how hard it is to bring new power online,” he said, adding that China’s rapid expansion in energy infrastructure puts it far ahead in the AI race.
While the US has tried to slow China’s progress by limiting access to advanced chips, Musk believes those restrictions won’t hold forever. He said China will “figure out the chips,” and that diminishing gains at the cutting edge of semiconductor performance could make it easier for the country to catch up technologically.
Musk’s comments echo a broader shift in how experts see the future of AI development. Energy supply and data-center capacity are now seen as the main constraints, not software breakthroughs. Goldman Sachs has also warned that electricity shortages could slow AI growth in the US, while China continues to expand its power grid at scale.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently highlighted the country’s advances in AI and chip development, saying China has tightly integrated technology with industry and achieved major breakthroughs. Together, these trends support Musk’s view that China is positioning itself to dominate the next phase of the global AI race.