Oil prices were volatile as markets reopened following the U.S. operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.
U.S. benchmark WTI crude dropped as much as 1.4% early Monday before stabilizing, trading around $56.84 a barrel, while Brent crude slipped about 0.8% to $60.24. The swings come as investors assess whether Venezuela’s oil sector could restart under a new political reality.
President Donald Trump said U.S. oil companies could invest billions in Venezuela, raising the prospect of higher output. But analysts caution any recovery would be slow. Years of sanctions, underinvestment, and decaying infrastructure mean production gains would require tens of billions of dollars and many years to materialize.
Despite holding roughly 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves, Venezuela currently produces less than 1% of global supply. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Third Bridge said meaningful increases would depend on long-term capital, upgraded facilities, and stable power and transport systems.
The broader oil market is already under pressure. Crude prices fell about 20% last year, weighed down by oversupply and slowing demand, even as OPEC+ has pledged to limit output in early 2026.
Goldman Sachs warned that any sustained rise in Venezuelan production would likely be bearish for oil prices over the long term, adding to global supply at a time when demand growth is cooling—though short-term disruptions remain possible.